Newer routes, as well as higher frequencies on dense international and domestic routes, are expected as the global aviation industry recovers from the COVID-induced contraction in demand. Segmentation 3: Flight Demand Analysis by Fleet-Flightīased on Fleet-Flight, demand for medium and short-haul flights is expected to increase significantly.
Emissions are above those for scenario 2 (optimistic scenario) and below that for no emissions control scenario. The industry is expected to prioritize demand and high frequency heavily, given the contraction in volume during COVID and the slow recovery. The most likely scenario (Scenario 4) factors in realistic levels of adoption of SAF and late emergence and maturation of technologies. The emissions reduction possible in this scenario is the highest, with the 2042 emissions reducing to below 2022 levels, even with monotonically increasing flight demands in all segments. Emissions from the ideal scenario (Scenario 3) are the lowest and are heavily focused on maturation as well as the adoption of electric and hydrogen propulsion for high-volume flight operations. Scenario 2 is optimistic, with wide adoption of SAF frequent fleet renewals bringing down the emissions significantly by 2042. Segmentation 2: Emissions Analysis by ScenarioĮmissions from the no emissions control scenario (Scenario 1) are the highest and are based on the current emissions control technologies and measures projected on the flight forecasts. Aircraft and engine manufacturers are investing in research and development of green propulsion technologies, such as hydrogen and electric propulsion, for entry into the market in the next decade to keep commercial flights sustainable in the future. Both segments are important for global connectivity and contribute significantly to the aviation industry's revenue from commercial flights. Segmentation 1: Emissions Analysis by Fleet-Flightīased on Fleet-Flight, the global aviation emissions from commercial flights will be the highest from narrowbody medium-haul flight operations, followed closely by widebody long-haul emissions. The growth to 2019 levels of flight demands and above by around 2029 is expected to decelerate the emissions control measures and their adoption in order to respond to the scale of passenger flights.įurthermore, the slow pace of the maturation of technologies and the low availability of SAF feedstock for sustained commercial flight operations is expected to cause a bottleneck in the decarbonization efforts of the industry. The increasing demand for medium-haul flights and short-haul flights is driving the emissions from these segments. However, a high reduction in emissions can be achieved by bringing the technology readiness of green aviation to market for at least short-haul flight demands with eventual growth to include medium-haul flight segments. In the most likely scenario of emissions, the adoption of SAF and fleet renewals is key to the incremental reduction in aviation emissions. However, as the effort of all industries to decarbonize and reduce emissions is becoming a priority, revolutionary solutions such as electric and hydrogen propulsion and low-emissions jet fuels and their development programs are being accelerated by both private participants and government organizations.
Zuckerberg has said publicly that the plan will give users more choice by letting them communicate across apps, the move could also alleviate growth concerns for Facebook’s core service and further cement the company’s grip on the social media landscape.Trafditionally, fleet renewals to more fuel-efficient aircraft and transition to more efficient narrowbody aircraft have been key in the industry's strategy toward emissions control and emissions intensity reduction. The research came as Facebook was beginning early work to unite the messaging systems behind the company's apps. Although such “tipping points” are difficult to predict, he wrote, they should be Facebook’s biggest concern. Cunningham prepared for Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, parts of which were obtained by The Information, he warned that if enough users started posting on Instagram or WhatsApp instead of Facebook, the blue app could enter a self-sustaining decline in usage that would be difficult to undo. Last October, after spending almost a year examining trends among Facebook users, a senior data scientist at the company named Tom Cunningham painted a bleak picture of one possible future for its flagship Facebook app.Īt the time, Facebook noticed that users of the app-known internally as the “blue app” because of the color of its icon-were increasingly sharing on Instagram and WhatsApp, which are also owned by Facebook.
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